A new analysis from Tufts University suggests that Americans born after 1970 are experiencing higher midlife death rates than their parents, reversing decades of progress in U.S. longevity.

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study examined 45 years of mortality data between 1979 and 2019 and found that Generation X and millennials are dying more often from chronic diseases and external causes than previous generations at the same age.

The findings show that Americans born in the 1940s enjoyed steady improvements in survival at every age, while those born in the 1950s began to see those gains stall or even reverse.

This downward trajectory has deepened with each generation since, with the most striking changes seen in Americans born after 1970.

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Between ages 30 and 49, these younger generations are experiencing elevated death rates tied to heart disease, cancer, and external causes such as overdoses, suicide, homicide, and traffic accidents.

Researchers emphasize that the study mapped mortality patterns rather than identifying specific causes. Still, the data reveal both generational deterioration and a broader, nationwide setback in public health progress.

According to the report, Americans who entered adulthood after 2010 saw an abrupt slowdown in life expectancy improvements, breaking from the pattern of consistent gains throughout the 20th century.

From 2010 to 2019, U.S. life expectancy rose by just 0.26 years—a stark contrast to the 1.78 years gained per decade on average during the prior half century.

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This stalled progress has widened the gap between the United States and the world’s leading nations. By 2009, Americans lived an average of 4.7 years fewer than citizens of the top-performing country, up from a 2.6-year difference in 1983.

Previous generations faced widespread smoking-related deaths, while younger adults now confront obesity and related illnesses, including colon cancer.

The researchers also noted the surge in overdose deaths spurred by the opioid epidemic beginning in the late 1990s, which has hit post-1970 generations particularly hard.

Economic inequality, social instability, and chronic stress were cited as possible forces acting together to increase death risks across multiple categories.

Because many people born after 1970 are still in midlife, experts caution that the long-term impact of these higher mortality rates has not yet fully appeared in national life expectancy averages.

Lead author Leah Abrams, an assistant professor of community health at Tufts University, said that even though the study did not pinpoint causes, it suggests opportunities for intervention.

She pointed to addressing diabetes, hypertension, and obesity as potential steps to reduce cardiovascular deaths, and improving diet as one way to lower colon cancer mortality.

The team plans to review newly released 2024 mortality data to assess how the COVID-19 pandemic may have influenced these generational trends.

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