Shingles diagnoses have fallen sharply among younger U.S. adults, with the most striking decline appearing as the first generation eligible for routine childhood chickenpox vaccination reaches its late 20s. The pattern comes from a major Epic Research study of electronic health records for more than 85 million adults.

The largest change separated adults born from 1991 to 1995 from those born from 1996 to 2000. About 46 of every 10,000 people in the older group were diagnosed with shingles, compared with 17 of every 10,000 in the younger group, representing a 62% decrease.

Researchers examined records from January 2017 through June 2026, and the findings were published on Oct. 2, 2026. The analysis also showed a powerful age pattern, with shingles occurring much more often among older adults than among younger people.

About 182 of every 10,000 people born from 1968 to 1975 received a shingles diagnosis. Among those born from 2006 to 2008, the figure was only seven of every 10,000.

"Shingles diagnoses rise steeply with age, but the newer signal is a sharp drop that begins with people who were eligible for the childhood chickenpox vaccine in the mid-1990s," study author Kersten Bartelt, a research clinician in Verona, Wisconsin, told Fox News Digital.

"This is the pattern we would expect if childhood chickenpox vaccination lowers the risk of developing shingles later in life." Bartelt said continued monitoring will be needed as vaccinated groups age to determine whether the apparent protection becomes a lasting benefit.

Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst, explained that shingles and chickenpox come from the same virus. "Shingles is caused by a virus that is harbored in the peripheral nerves — varicella-zoster, the same virus that causes chickenpox — which can remain dormant and later reactivate, particularly during stress or other decreased immune responses, resulting in a shingles risk," he told Fox News Digital.

Siegel said the findings align with earlier research indicating that preventing the initial infection through chickenpox vaccination, or producing a very mild version through a live virus vaccine, significantly reduces shingles risk. He noted that the vaccine uses a weakened virus that is far less likely to reactivate later and trigger shingles.

The results do not establish that childhood vaccination caused the lower diagnosis rates. Researchers did not determine whether each patient in the records had actually received the varicella vaccine during childhood, leaving a central question unresolved.

"This is a descriptive, observational study, so it shows associations rather than cause and effect," Bartelt said. The researchers also noted that health care disruptions during the COVID pandemic in 2020 and 2021 may have altered diagnosis rates and skewed the findings.

Future research will need to connect individual childhood vaccination histories with long term shingles outcomes to confirm the relationship. Even so, the birth year divide offers a signal consistent with the timing of routine chickenpox vaccine eligibility.

The findings do not replace current shingles vaccination guidance. Although people who received the chickenpox vaccine have a lower risk of shingles, Siegel said he still recommends the shingles vaccine for eligible people as an additional way to reduce that risk.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends shingles vaccination for adults age 50 and older. Its recommendation also covers certain immunocompromised adults age 19 and older, including those who previously received the varicella vaccine.

"People should continue to follow established vaccine recommendations and talk with their clinician about the shingles vaccine when they're eligible," Bartelt advised. "It's also a reminder that shingles can occur in younger adults, so anyone with a painful, blistering rash should seek timely evaluation."

For now, the striking generational split stands as evidence of an association, not proof of cause and effect. Continued follow up should clarify whether the lower shingles burden persists as people vaccinated against chickenpox during childhood move into older age groups.